Description
One crash. Three different exposures.
Verified reporting window: 20 February–23 March 2020 — 32 elapsed calendar days. The EA’s visual reference marks 10 February–25 March 2020; that label is not a trading-date filter and is not the period of these reports.
Historical net return · COVID in-sample
Maximum relative equity drawdown
Net profit $25,612.07
Final balance $30,612.07
275 trades · PF 1.70
Historical net return · COVID in-sample
Maximum relative equity drawdown
Net profit $27,196.50
Final balance $32,196.50
274 trades · PF 1.70
Historical net return · COVID in-sample
Maximum relative equity drawdown
Net profit $31,920.09
Final balance $36,920.09
268 trades · PF 1.71
All three: USD5,000 deposit · US100.pro · M5 · OANDATMS-MT5 · leverage1:100 · risk boost0%. Returns are net historical P/L ÷ initial deposit, not annualized returns. LOW remains high risk.
Follow every realized balance change
The native store chart uses STANDARD deal cash flows; every point reconciles to the report within $0.01. The original AGGRESSIVE MT5 plot below is included for comparison. Realized balance is not equity; floating losses may be larger than visible balance dips.
Show original MT5 plot and testing conditions
Original plot: AGGRESSIVE. Build6230; 5,493 bars; 16,166,519 ticks. Recorded deal commissions and swaps sum to $0 in each report. Full spread schedule, modeling-mode label and execution-delay setting were not separately supplied. History quality is not a guarantee of executable live prices.
Exposure changes the whole path.
| Report measure | LOW | STANDARD | AGGRESSIVE |
|---|---|---|---|
| Net profit · USD | 25,612.07 | 27,196.50 | 31,920.09 |
| Net return · % | 512.24 | 543.93 | 638.40 |
| Relative equity DD · % | 33.69 | 34.21 | 36.70 |
| Maximum cash equity DD · USD | 5,333.83 | 7,582.79 | 10,016.40 |
| Profit factor | 1.70 | 1.70 | 1.71 |
| Trades · all short | 275 | 274 | 268 |
| Win rate · % | 58.91 | 58.76 | 58.96 |
| Minimum margin level · % | 154.55 | 154.34 | 151.82 |
| Initial-entry risk · % | 5.5 | 6.5 | 7.0 |
| Initial SL · ATR | 5.0 | 6.0 | 5.0 |
| Pyramid lot multiplier | 2.00 | 1.75 | 1.50 |
| Recovery lot multiplier | 1.50 | 2.00 | 2.00 |
Relative equity DD and maximum cash equity DD are distinct report statistics and may occur at different peaks. AGGRESSIVE’s maximum cash DD is $10,016.40; its maximum relative DD is36.70%. Do not combine them into one event.
Three presets are alternatives.
They trade the same symbol, direction and signal family. Running all three together does not create three independent strategies; it can concentrate margin and crash/rebound exposure.
MANUAL means your own configuration.
Named presets override the manual strategy and money-management inputs. Select MANUAL to change those settings. Risk boost applies only to named presets; +50% boost changes STANDARD’s initial-entry risk from6.5% to9.75%, not its expected profit by50%.
Change the assumptions.
See the dependence.
How much does weaker execution change the result?
| Separate arithmetic scenario · AGGRESSIVE | Net P/L · USD | Final balance · USD | Return |
|---|---|---|---|
| Reported baseline | 31,920.09 | 36,920.09 | 638.40% |
| Positive P/L reduced by 25% | 12,649.36 | 17,649.36 | 252.99% |
| Loss P/L increased by 25% | 20,629.39 | 25,629.39 | 412.59% |
| Extra $10 per closed lot | 30,905.73 | 35,905.73 | 618.11% |
| Best settlement day removed | 24,607.63 | 29,607.63 | 492.15% |
Each row is a separate scenario with the original fixed trade sizes. $10 means additional USD10 per 1.0 closed lot over the full round trip, not10 index points. Removing the best settlement day is an outcome-dependence illustration, not a simulated trading decision.
Same daily P/L. A different sequence.
1,000 permutations without replacement of 23 active settlement days, seed230301. Daily P/L stays fixed in dollars. Final balance is always $36,920.09 by construction. Only the ordering changes.
Shuffled daily balance DD
Shuffled daily balance DD
Shuffled daily balance DD
These percentiles describe this shuffle experiment, not probabilities of future losses. They use daily realized balance, so they exclude intraday and floating equity losses. Two of1,000 arithmetic paths pass through a nonpositive balance; those paths could not continue as real funded accounts. Cross-day basket relationships and capital-dependent lot sizing are not preserved. The real report’s equity DD36.70% is a different measure.
A bearish signal, with two ways to add.
Breakout + trend
A completed candle closes below a falling EMA and below the low of the preceding breakout window. The signal is evaluated on a new signal bar; orders remain subject to spread and funding checks.
Add to a profitable decline
When the own basket is profitable and bearish conditions hold, an ATR distance below the prior lowest fill can trigger a profit add. Named presets allow one profit add.
Add during an adverse move
A losing basket may receive up to two recovery adds at ATR spacing while bearish conditions hold. Multiplied size raises exposure and can accelerate losses during rebounds.
EVERY POSITION HAS ITS OWN STOP LOSS. This is not a stop-loss-free martingale: every initial entry, profit-pyramid add and recovery add is opened with its own ATR-based initial Stop Loss. Recovery still increases exposure. A Stop Loss does not guarantee the execution price: gaps and slippage can produce a larger loss than planned. Closed-bar trailing begins after1.5ATR with0.75ATR distance. An EMA reversal can close the basket. Named presets also use a12% floating basket-loss trigger, a50% account peak-equity DD halt, up to60% projected margin use at entry,20 own lots and12 own positions. These are configured controls, not guaranteed loss ceilings.
Actual owner-supplied visual-test screenshot. Panel values are a point-in-time snapshot, not final performance. Black/red chart, collapsible panel and native trade history; custom ENTRY/EXIT/SL/RR text is hidden.
Everything needed to inspect the system.
What you receive
EA023 v3.01 EX5; LOW, STANDARD and AGGRESSIVE SET files; English20-page PDF manual; START_HERE and changelog; all three original HTML reports with their image assets; deal CSV exports; reconstructed balance chart; simulation methodology and research page. MQ5 source and license keys are excluded from the customer package.
Install, activate, test
Copy EX5 into MQL5/Experts and refresh MT5. Use a compatible hedging account and your broker’s US100 symbol; select M5 and load one preset. Activate using the key from My Account and allow WebRequest to https://ea-lab.dev for live/demo use. Tester operation bypasses licensing. Broker contract specifications and available leverage must be checked in your own terminal.
Optimization workflow
COMPARE_PRESETS can compare presets1–3 and boost0–100 in steps of10. For strategy inputs, use MANUAL_PARAMETERS with MANUAL selected. Signal-TF indices0–5 map to M5/M15/M30/H1/H4/D1. NET_PROFIT maximizes test profit subject to the configured trade-count/DD filter; it does not establish robustness. Test wider periods, other crashes and sharp rebounds, then use a genuinely unseen holdout and forward demo.
The32-day report window does not meet the optional smooth-criterion minimum35-day duration. A failed criterion should be rejected, not relabeled as a good result.
The risk belongs beside the return.
Recovery is not protection.
Martingale recovery increases size after adverse movement. Fast rebounds, repeated false breakouts and market gaps can compound losses. Leverage magnifies this exposure. A50% emergency trigger can execute beyond50%; margin liquidation may happen first.
Historical fit is not validation.
There is no supplied independent out-of-sample, forward-demo or real-money track record. A visually strong curve from a known crash is not evidence that a future crash will offer the same entries, duration, spread or recovery behavior.
Does the robot predict or detect a future crash?
No crash forecast is established. It follows bearish signal rules while enabled. The highlighted 2020 reference window is visual only and does not restrict future trading dates.
Does 1:100 guarantee enough margin?
No. Margin depends on broker contract specifications, price, current equity and existing exposure. The EA checks estimated and projected margin and can reduce or skip an order. It cannot guarantee fills or prevent stop-out. Limits checked at entry can be exceeded after equity falls.
Is the 12% basket setting a maximum account loss?
No. It monitors the current floating own basket against basket-start equity. Earlier realized leg losses are not included in that floating trigger. Execution gaps and other account positions can increase total account losses.
Is this an independently verified production release?
The EX5 and reports were supplied by the owner. Report arithmetic has been reconciled; no independent MetaEditor compilation or complete live licensing, restart and outage test matrix has been performed here. This product page is public for research and inspection. The protected customer package is attached. Sales are enabled with the protected customer package. This sales approval does not establish independent compilation or live-activation validation; those checks have not been completed.
Understanding drawdown · Avoiding overfitting · My Account & activation
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